De Finetti's theorem
Conditional independence of exchangeable observations / From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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In probability theory, de Finetti's theorem states that exchangeable observations are conditionally independent relative to some latent variable. An epistemic probability distribution could then be assigned to this variable. It is named in honor of Bruno de Finetti.
For the special case of an exchangeable sequence of Bernoulli random variables it states that such a sequence is a "mixture" of sequences of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) Bernoulli random variables.
A sequence of random variables is called exchangeable if the joint distribution of the sequence is unchanged by any permutation of the indices. While the variables of the exchangeable sequence are not themselves independent, only exchangeable, there is an underlying family of i.i.d. random variables. That is, there are underlying, generally unobservable, quantities that are i.i.d. – exchangeable sequences are mixtures of i.i.d. sequences.